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What's the point of long-range forecasts?

Dear friend,

No sooner do we put the lid on another North Atlantic Hurricane season, than the first predictions for next year are published.

The guys at Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) are saying that we’re odds-on for another above-average season like 2004 or 2005.

Or 2006?!

Of course the problem is that this is what they were saying this time last year about 2006’s season.

Check out the full forecast – (you get there by going to the site and scrolling down below the globe image).

Once you’re there, look at the ‘forecast skill’ then get back to doing what you were doing before!

Recently our UK sister title Post magazine carried a great article from Professor Mark Saunders of (TSR) on what went wrong with the 2006 forecasts.

This speculative stuff is great fun, but strictly for pleasure (ie for scaring Cat-exposed colleagues at the Christmas party!) and not for serious business — only use long-term averages for calculating your technical prices.

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