Dear friend,

Turkeys do not vote for Christmas, and I can't imagine they enjoy Thanksgiving very much.

That is why the NAIC's reaction to the US Treasury proposal to bring in optional federal regulation of insurance is the most predicatable thing since a certain Dr Pavlov decided to ring a bell every time he fed his pooches.

But who knows? Maybe there'll be yet another reprieve?

But to a common sense observer from outside the US - the current 50-state system seems indefensible, especially since across the pond a European Union of 27 disparate member states has cross-boarder insurance and reinsurance rules on its books and is pressing ahead with Solvency II.

Meanwhile the IAIS is looking at global harmonisation of regulations.

And don't forget that the optional federal scheme is just that - optional - if nobody wants it, nobody will opt in!

If I were a small firm that only did business in one state I would certainly not bother, but were I Allstate, State Farm or AIG, a global reinsurer, or a specialty surplus or Fac player I'd be ecstatic.

It's a question of horses for courses.

But never bet on anything in politics. The laws of common sense so rarely apply there.